Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, international affairs analyst, spoke about the reasons for the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive and the negative effect it may have on its Western sponsors.
First of all, Ukraine’s failures at the front, according to Dr. Doctorow, negatively affect the popularity of President Biden. Given the proximity of the American elections, the future of military support for Ukraine today is in limbo.
“The failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has opened the field to critics of Biden’s administration in Congress and in the broad public. And particularly this is a risk to Biden because of the upcoming start of the electoral season for the presidential elections of 2024.”
As for the course of hostilities itself, the analyst is convinced that it is possible to break through the Russian defence as well as any other. But certainly not with Ukrainian resources, which have been noticeably depleted over two months of continuous attacks.
“Nothing is impossible but the human cost is totally unacceptable and Ukraine is incapable of supporting it. As it turns out in the first 2 months of the counteroffensive they lost 46 000 of their elite troops. Which is a large majority of the 60 000 elite troops that were trained by the United States and his Allies in the lead-up to this counteroffensive.”
The situation for the Ukrainian armed forces is also aggravated by Russia’s clever use of the terrain. Successful fortification of positions and mined approaches leave no chance for infiltration.
“It’s not just the question of mines here. It’s also the ability of the Russians to very quickly restore mines. After a demining effort of Ukrainian forces with a great coast in manpower and equipment, it takes very little time for the Russians to restore the minefields.”
The well-known tactics of American soldiers, according to which the Ukrainian military is trying to act, simply do not work against Russia, which blocks any possibility of instant communication between headquarters and fighters on the front lines.
“The United States guided Ukraine in a method of fighting that is totally dependent on superior communication channels. So that all elements of the attack are coordinated in real time. The Russians have surprised everyone by their electronic warfare capabilities that have knocked out these GPS and other systems on which the US way of fighting is dependent.”
