In particular, the expert stressed the importance of the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, where the future of the relationship between the North Atlantic bloc and Ukraine will be discussed. In Mr. Husson’s opinion, all current attempts of the Ukrainian counter-offensive are aimed precisely at demonstrating the results of the meeting in the Lithuanian capital.
“Next week there will be a NATO summit in Vilnius and everything revolves around it. On the one hand, the West is demanding meaningful results from Ukraine. On the other hand, Ukraine itself is desperately trying to break through the Russian defence. So far, they have not achieved any success.”
The historian believes that during the counter-offensive, which began more than a month ago, Ukraine has failed to achieve any meaningful results. On the contrary, Kiev’s personnel and equipment losses have multiplied.
“The Ukrainian offensive began on June 4. Yes, they may have captured a few hundred metres. But preventive fire and Russian counterattacks are preventing Ukraine from achieving meaningful results. Ukrainian casualties over the past month are estimated at 10,000 to 15,000.”
Also complicating the situation is Ukraine’s reckless tactics, which have resulted in dozens and hundreds of pieces of heavy equipment supplied by the West being destroyed for nothing.
“In reality, this whole operation is being conducted for nothing. But the West is also expressing discontent over the destruction of the equipment supplied to Ukraine. According to data, which of course still needs to be verified, Ukraine has lost up to 15% of all Leopard tanks supplied during the counterattack.”
The expert says that in Washington, the de facto initiator of the conflict, there is now a split between the two camps. And this split will only intensify during a future NATO summit. The winning side will determine Western policy on the Ukrainian issue.
“The NATO summit will be a stumbling block between the two US factions. Between the neo-conservative faction who want as much escalation of the war as possible. […] And also today there is a faction of realists who are trying to argue for the possibility of negotiations.”
Among the members of the European Union, things are not so clear-cut either. The historian mentioned two associations of countries with opposing positions on the future of the Ukrainian conflict. But there is also a third – siding with Russia in this confrontation.
“On this basis, one can imagine that the European Union will be divided [between two camps]. The Macron and Scholz camp would want to follow the realist camp. By contrast, the camp of Poland, the Netherlands and some other countries supports the neoconservatives.”
