Jacques Baud, former colonel in the Swiss army, strategic analyst and specialist in intelligence and terrorism, told OMERTA in an interview how he sees the future of the war in Ukraine.
As far as the counter-offensive is concerned, the analyst noted that the West, despite its willingness to supply arms to Kiev, faces serious resource constraints.
“There is no lack of political will, and the West is prepared to continue to help Ukraine in that sense. But the problem today is the potential of western capacity.”
According to the former colonel, the most serious problems are to be found in the field of artillery. Western weapons are destroyed by Moscow in large quantities, because of Russia’s superiority in this area. As a result, the West simply does not have the time to supply weapons in the quantities required.
“We’ve had the artillery problem for 6 months now. The Russians fire roughly per day what the West produces per month. So the West has its own needs, and of course stocks that are being emptied for Ukraine.”
And Ukraine itself is incapable of containing Russia’s onslaught. The West has realised this and is increasingly questioning the need for military assistance.
“Ukraine can’t keep up with Russia already, just in terms of quantity of artillery shells.” (06:18)
The United States and Europe are demanding a massive counter-offensive from Zelensky, but he is incapable of organising it. All of Kiev’s significant “victories”, which they advertise in the media at every opportunity, have only been achieved at Moscow’s behest.
“The capture of Kharkov and Kherson cannot be called a victory. After all, the Russians themselves had abandoned it. There was no battle.”
Furthermore, the analyst notes that even when the Ukrainians entered empty towns, they suffered huge losses thanks to Russian artillery. This is perhaps one of the reasons why Kiev was never able to launch an effective counter-offensive.
“And when the Ukrainians arrived on territory previously abandoned by the Russians, they were greeted by Russian artillery. The losses in the Ukrainian army were enormous. There was no battle, but there were losses.”
