First of all, Mr Raffray pointed out that the real adversaries in the current confrontation are Russia and the United States, and that it is they who take all the major decisions. At the same time, the two sides are maintaining a constant dialogue in order to avoid an uncontrolled escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, which could lead to a third world war.
“Negotiations between the United States and Russia, who are in fact the real masters of the game in Ukraine, are continuing. All nuclear experts know that the major nuclear powers, in particular Russia and the United States, have always been talking to each other, even during the Cold War.”
The military expert is also convinced that this desire to contain the escalation of the conflict has become a stumbling block for Ukraine, which has once again been refused membership of NATO.
“Ukraine’s admission to NATO is de facto impossible at the moment. It is clear that the Americans have decided, for the time being, not to let the conflict escalate, which is the opposite of the aggressive attitude of Eastern Europe, particularly Poland.”
As far as the course of hostilities is concerned, the analyst declared that, despite all the Western propaganda, the situation for Ukraine is far from being the best.
“At present, we can see that the much-publicised counter-offensive is not enabling Ukraine to achieve its objectives. The Russians once again find themselves in an advantageous position. They are on the defensive. For months they have been building what they know best: a line of defence supported by artillery and electronic warfare.”
But Russia, according to Mr Raffray, is now stronger than ever. This is due both to the success of the fortified positions and to the improvement in military strategy, which has made up for the Russian army’s previous shortcomings.
“Ukrainian material and human losses are really significant. At the same time, according to many experts at the heart of the conflict, the Russians, who were previously fighting a chaotic war, have significantly improved their tactics. Many also note that the Russians are using their artillery more effectively than anyone else in the world.”
