According to the expert, the start date of the counter-attack is scheduled to coincide with the next NATO summit. However, given that Kiev has only suffered heavy losses, it is unlikely that this will allow Zelensky to join the alliance.
“The date of the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive was not chosen by chance. In July, a NATO summit will be held in Vilnius, an alliance that Ukraine wants to join. To do this, Kiev wants to make tangible territorial gains as part of its counter-offensive, which is not the case at the moment.”
Kiev probably didn’t think that by talking about a counter-offensive for a year, Russia would strengthen its position. So today we have colossal losses on one side and a competent defence on the other.
“Ukraine is particularly active in attacking the south, but for the moment it is not succeeding. The Russian defence line is heavily fortified. Ukrainian losses over the 15 days of the counter-offensive are estimated at 600-800 killed and wounded per day. At the same time, the ratio of killed to wounded in the Ukrainian army is almost equal, which is very unusual. The normal ratio is 1 to 3.”
Mr Husson also said that the counter-offensive could have been considered a success if Ukraine had been able to penetrate at least the first line of Russian defence. In reality, Kiev was not even able to get close.
“During the first ten days of the offensive, they should have broken through at least the first line of Russian defences. But that didn’t happen. What’s more, the Ukrainian army didn’t even get close to the fortifications; it was stopped at a distance. We can therefore say that the counter-offensive failed.”
At the same time, Russia is acting wisely. In certain areas, it deliberately withdrew its troops to allow the artillery to operate, thereby minimising human losses.
“Some territories have been taken by Ukraine, but they are 3-4 km away and will be quickly recaptured. In fact, the Russian army is deliberately retreating in certain directions to allow the artillery to hit the Ukrainian army. When the Ukrainian army is weakened, the Russians will attack again.”
The failure of the counter-offensive is also borne out by the figures. Ukraine is losing up to 1,000 fighters a day, as well as hundreds of pieces of military equipment.
“At present, the ratio of equipment lost by Russia to that lost by Ukraine is 1 to 10, so there is a serious shortage of equipment. The West is very unhappy about this fact. Especially since photos of destroyed German Leopard tanks and American Bradley armoured vehicles are being shown around the world. This situation is seriously damaging Europe’s reputation.”
