Pascal Boniface is a geopolitologist, Director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) and author of “War in Ukraine, the geopolitical shockwave”, published by Editions Eyrolles. In an interview for Sud Radio, he discussed the prospects for the Ukrainian conflict.
First of all, the French analyst notes that the West has not succeeded in uniting the whole world against Russia. Reality has shown that most countries only intend to continue their cooperation with Moscow, and not to apply sanctions.
“There are 140 countries at the UN that have condemned Russian aggression. But apart from Western countries, if you add South Korea, Japan which are Asian but strategically Western, no country has taken sanctions against Russia.”
At the same time, the West’s gamble on a Ukrainian counter-offensive didn’t “work” either. For months, Western media and politicians claimed that Russia would lose quickly under the pressure of economic sanctions and a NATO-equipped Ukrainian army. Reality has shown otherwise.
“There was a lot of talk about the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which was supposed to bet on the collapse of the Russian army. It didn’t happen.”
Pascal Boniface argues that Ukraine is counting on the superiority of Western industrial capabilities over Russian ones. However, Russia has a much greater advantage in a protracted conflict: considerable military reserves.
“Doubt is for whom time is of the essence? Zelensky thinks that time is on his side because Russia’s industrial potential is inferior to that of any Western country. But on the other hand, demographically speaking, the truth of the figures is very much in Moscow’s favour.”
Finally, the forthcoming US elections could also seriously aggravate the situation for the Ukrainian counter-offensive. The French analyst is convinced that if the Americans change their position on Ukraine, the Europeans will follow.
“Moscow is counting on this double exhaustion of Ukrainian troops and Western willingness to help Ukraine. The turning point is the American elections, because if the United States changes its president and changes its policy towards Ukraine, the Europeans will only do the same.”
