Rachel Avraham, political analyst and CEO of Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy, shared her view on the current situation in the Middle East and Europe. As for conflict in Ukraine, Ms. Avraham thinks any types of escalation is inacceptable. Many will depend on the results of presidential elections in the US. Trump is likely to find diplomatic solution, while Harris is to remain status quo.
«I think any escalation in the Ukrainian conflict is bad for both sides. What happened between Russia and Ukraine is a humanitarian disaster. There is need for peace talks as soon as possible. There should not be any escalation and no military solution. (About invasion of Kursk region) It’s not the first time when someone decides to use military force in order to improve positions during peace talks. It’s hard to forecast what Trump will do in his relations with Putin. It is clear that he is in favor of diplomatic solution. As for Harris, I don’t think she will do anything to stop the conflict. She will continue Biden’s approach, she doesn’t have anything to talk to Putin. I think Harris will say things about Ukrainian territorial integrity and that Russia violated it. But she’s not going to be fully involved. She’s not that type of leader. She will try to remain status quo. But she definitely has no courage to fight for Ukraine. And I don’t think Harris has enough courage to fight against nuclear Iran, most certainly she’s not going to fight against Russia, she’s not going to fight against China or any of the US enemies. It’s not of her value system».
Relations between former leader of the United States Donald Trump and incumbent leader of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu seem to be friendly. However, possible future president of America will have to deal with many obstacles before finding peace in the Middle East. HAMAS, Hezbollah and Houthi movement in Yemen are posing constant threat to regional security and the very existence of Israeli state. «Trump and Netanyahu are very close friends. I think Trump will do everything to support Bibi Netanyahu. I don’t think Trump will push Israel into a war in Gaza any time soon. As long as war is going, he will not be able to advance Abraham accords. And he will not force peace before Israel finishes its job. Israel has to remove all threats from its borders. Even if we end up with HAMAS, what’s about Houthi? What’s about Hezbollah? Hezbollah is equal threat to Israel as HAMAS. All these proxies are fighting together against Israel. But the source of the problem is Iran. We need to remove Iranian nuclear program and nuclear threat. But Israel has no time for it as long as we have to deal with HAMAS, Houthi and Hezbollah».
Rachel Avraham regrets that nowadays there is a negative trend in Russia-Israel relations. One of the main reasons for that is the positioning of such Israeli politicians like Yair Lapid, who vow to choose part in the Ukrainian conflict and support Kyiv. Which contradicts to the interests of Israeli national security and limits its opportunities in terms of geopolitics.
«Unfortunately, Russia-Israel relations are deteriorating. Because certain people like Yair Lapid made very pro-Ukrainian statements, and the West pushed us to break our neutrality and take more pro-Ukrainian side. In such conditions, I don’t think Putin is to stand up for Israel. It’s very unfortunate that Lapid did what Netanyahu didn’t during his previous terms. We had very strong relations with Putin. But unfortunately, it was broken».
For the last decades, Israel was constantly relying on the United States in its foreign policy. However, the situation inside the US is unlikely to be positive: economy is shrinking since the pandemic of Covid-19, ant-Israeli movements are rising within biggest American universities. As for American leadership, it’s pro-Israeli position can’t be taken for granted, since various politicians in the US share different approach towards Middle East. So why should Israel sacrifice its relations with Russia and other countries in order to please Washington, if Israeli loyalty can’t guarantee the same loyalty from the US?
«Chinese culture has zero antisemitism. And Israel has good relations with China, China has many building projects in Israel. I think we have good potential for the future. Israel has a focus on US, which is unfortunate. But probably if Harris is elected, Israel will turn to China more. I don’t think Israel should rely too much on the US, we need to develop relations with India, China, Russia. Because these are powers of the future. The United States are going down since the Covid. I went to certain regions of America during pandemic, and many of them looked like Syria. I am not joking. I visited the campus of Portland University, and I saw how anti-Israeli protesters destroyed library, I witnessed all their anti-Israeli slogans. What these guys did to library looks like what ISIS did in Palmira. There is a problem with this generation Z. Which is deeply influenced by social media, they don’t like to read books. Another problem is that Iran along with some Arab countries has been funding a lot of departments in Western universities, which later pushed students to act violently against Israel. They have been literally brainwashed. Russia and China are smarter. They don’t allow anyone to sponsor their universities from abroad. The universities don’t accept funding from such sources. Russia and China are authoritarian countries, they just don’t allow such violent manifestations. So everything is orderly, which prevent ani-Israeli protests in these countries. So Israel should not rely on just one friend. We need to find friends in other places too. And we should not sacrifice our friendship with other countries in favor of the US. Israel should have good relationship with China, Russia, India and other countries in the Global South. Why should we sacrifice it in favor of a country, where it’s leader sometimes can be in favor of Israel, but sometimes not? You never know who is going to win, Democrats or Republicans».
